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P3-VALUE 2.2 User Guide and Concept Guide

January 2019
Table of Contents

Tables

Figures

Acronyms
AP Availability Payment
BCA Benefit Cost Analysis
BS Balance Sheet
CF Cash Flow
CFADS Cash Flows Available to Debt Service
DSCR Debt Service Coverage Ratio
DSRA Debt Service Reserve Account
GPL General Purpose Lanes
IRI International Roughness Index
IRR Internal Rate of Return
ML/TL Managed Lanes or Tolled Lanes
MMRA Major Maintenance Reserve Account
O&M Operations and Maintenance
PDBCA Project Delivery Benefit-Cost Analysis
P&L Profit & Loss
PSC Public Sector Comparator or Conventional Delivery
P3 Public-Private Partnership
V/C Volume/Capacity Ratio
VDF Volume Delay Function
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
 

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5 Calculations

This chapter provides a brief discussion of the various calculations performed in P3-VALUE 2.2. The chapter contains the following sections:

  • Core calculations
  • Risk assessment
  • Revenue calculations
  • PSC calculations for VfM
  • P3 calculations for VfM
  • VfM output calculations
  • Travel cost calculations for PDBCA
  • Benefits calculations

5.1 Core Calculations

The following section presents the core calculations, which include timing and escalation, construction and O&M costs and traffic calculations. The core calculations are used in both the VfM analysis and PDBCA. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 4 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 4: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Core Calculation Sheets

Figure 4: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Core Calculation Sheets
View larger version of Figure 4.

Text description of Figure 4.

Core Calculations

This screenshot displays the core calculations list, including: Time and Escalation, construction cost calculations, operations and maintenance cost calculations, and traffic calculations.

5.1.1 Time&Esc: Timing & Escalation calculations

This sheet calculates the various delivery models' timelines, which are shown at the top of each sheet. The sheet also contains flags and counters, which are used to simplify complex calculations. For example, a flag could indicate when the construction period ends and may be used in the subsidy calculation to ensure the subsidy is paid in the correct year. The Time&Esc sheet contains the following calculations:

  • Model Period: Determines the overall model timeline using inputs from the InpTiming&Cost sheet.
  • PSC Model Timeline: Determines the timelines for the different PSC project phases using inputs from the Model Period and the InpTiming&Cost sheet.
  • Delayed PSC Model Timeline: Determines the timelines for the different Delayed PSC project phases using inputs from the Model Period and the InpTiming&Cost sheet.
  • P3 Model Timeline: Determines the timelines for the different P3 project phases using inputs from the Model Period and the InpTiming&Cost sheet.
  • Maintenance Costs: Using flags created by the three delivery model timelines and inputs from the InpTiming&Cost sheet, major maintenance costs flags are created for each of the three delivery models, which indicate when major maintenance costs are applied on the project.
  • PSC - Financing: Using the PSC model timeline and inputs from the InpFin sheet, flags are created which will allow the model to determine when debt repayment will begin and end.
  • P3 - Depreciation: Using the P3 model timeline and inputs from the InpFin sheet, flags are created which will allow the model to determine when to begin applying depreciation.
  • P3 - Financing: Using the P3 model timeline and inputs from the InpFin sheet, flags are created which will allow the model to determine when debt repayment will begin and end.
  • Traffic: Using traffic inputs, various flags are created which will be used in traffic calculations.
  • Transit: Using transit passenger inputs, various flags are created which will be used in transit passenger calculations.
  • Carpooling: Using carpooling passenger inputs, various flags are created which will be used in carpooling passenger calculations.
  • BCA: Using the various model delivery timelines, various flags are created which will be used in the PDBCA module.
  • Indexation Factors: Indexation factors and rates from the InpTiming&Cost sheet are used to determine the indexation factor for each of the model timeline years.
  • Discount Factor: Discount rates from the InpTiming&Cost sheet are used to determine the discount factors for each of the model timeline years.
  • Toll Rates: Using inputs from InpTraffic&Toll, toll rates for the No Build, ML/TL and GPL are determined for each of the model timeline years.
  • Ramp-up: Using inputs from InpTraffic&Toll, a ramp-up profile is developed for the PSC, Delayed PSC, and P3 delivery models.
5.1.2 Construction: Construction Cost Calculations

This sheet calculates the pre-construction and construction costs for each delivery model. Cost items are imported from the InpTiming&Cost sheet and applied uniformly over the pre-construction and construction periods, respectively. Furthermore, indexation factors are imported from the Time&Esc sheet. Combining the various inputs and calculations, cash flows for the construction and pre-construction costs are created. Based on the calculated nominal pre-construction and construction costs, real costs for the BCA calculations are computed.

5.1.3 O&M: Operations & Maintenance Cost Calculations

This sheet calculates the O&M and major maintenance costs for each delivery model. Cost items are imported from the InpTiming&Cost sheet whereas indexation factors are imported from the Time&Esc sheet. Combining the various inputs and calculations, cash flows for the O&M and major maintenance costs are created. Based on the calculated nominal O&M and major maintenance costs, real costs for the BCA calculations are computed.

The sheet also calculates the No Build cost savings for each delivery model. For this, annual No Build O&M costs are imported from the InpTiming&Cost sheet. The cost savings cash flows are created using the No Build O&M cost input and each delivery model's operation phase index flag from the Time&Esc sheet.

5.1.4 Traffic: Traffic Calculations

This sheet calculates traffic volumes for each year in the analysis period for both the No Build and Build. The sheet distinguishes between P50 traffic (used in the VfM analysis in combination with revenue uncertainty adjustment where appropriate) and sensitivity-adjusted traffic (used in the PDBCA module). The calculated traffic volumes are used to compute revenues, speeds, travel costs, incident delays, O&M-related travel delays, construction-related travel delays, non-fuel costs, fuel costs, accident costs, and emissions costs. The sheet uses inputs from InpTraffic&Toll, InpSeries, and Time&Esc and contains the following traffic calculations.

  • Traffic before capacity constraints
  • Traffic after capacity constraints
  • Peak, off-peak & weekend traffic, split into 2 axle & 4+ axle traffic
  • ML/TL & GPL existing and induced traffic before ramp-up
  • ML/TL & GPL traffic after considering ramp-up
  • ML/TL & GPL existing traffic for travel costs calculations
  • Peak, off-peak, & weekend traffic for speed calculation
  • Annual total ML/TL & GPL traffic for weekdays & weekends
  • Annual existing ML/TL & GPL traffic for weekdays & weekends
  • Annual induced ML/TL & GPL traffic for weekdays & weekends
  • Annual No Build traffic for weekdays & weekends

For a more detailed discussion on traffic projections, please refer to Part II.

5.2 Risk Assessment

This section presents the various calculations included in the risk assessment. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 5 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 5: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Calculation Sheets for Risk Assessment

Figure 5: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Calculation Sheets for Risk Assessment
View larger version of Figure 5.

Text description of Figure 5.

Risks

This screenshot displays the risks calculations list, including: pure risks calculations, base variability calculations, lifecycle performance risks and revenue uncertainty adjustments, risk outputs related to VfM, and risk outputs related to PDBCA.

5.2.1 Pure Risks: Pure Risks Calculations

This worksheet calculates the pure risk cash flows for each delivery model. The risks are divided into construction period risks and operations period risks. The risk inputs, including the most likely risk values and other probability risk inputs, are imported from the InpRisk sheet. Indexation factors and flags are imported from the Time&Esc sheet. Using the minimum, maximum, and mean values as well as the distribution of each individual risk, the model determines the variance of each risk in order to calculate the probabilistic combined risk value in a given year based on the desired input P-level. For P3, the pure risk values are divided into retained and transferred risks, using the risk transfer percentages from the InpRisk sheet. For a more detailed discussion on pure risks, please refer to Part II.

Please note that when using the simplified inputs option, pure risks are not considered. Instead, all cost inputs must be risk- and uncertainty-adjusted.

5.2.2 Base Variability: Base Variability Calculations

The base variability is calculated for each delivery model to create base variability cash flows. Base variability is calculated by importing the base variability inputs for each project phase (pre-construction, construction and operations) from the InpRisk sheet and the costs from InpTiming&Cost. For P3, the base variability is divided into retained and transferred base variability, using the cost transfer percentages from the InpTiming&Cost sheet. For a more detailed discussion on base variability, please refer to Part II.

Please note that when using the simplified inputs option, base variability is not considered. Instead, all cost inputs must be risk- and uncertainty-adjusted.

5.2.3 Lifecycle Performance Risk: Lifecycle Performance Risk & Revenue Uncertainty Adjustment

The lifecycle performance risk is calculated for each delivery model to create lifecycle performance risk cash flows. The calculated lifecycle performance risk premium (option 1) is generated on this sheet using the P3 financing cost (WACC) for an availability payment concession whereas the user-specified lifecycle performance risk premium (option 2) is imported from the InpRisk sheet. The switch that determines which calculation method to use is also imported from the InpRisk sheet. Using indexation factors and phase flags from the Time&Esc sheet, the annual lifecycle performance risk premium cash flow is calculated. For a more detailed discussion on lifecycle performance risk, please refer to Part II.

The sheet also calculates a revenue uncertainty adjustment cash flow to account for uncertainty in revenues flowing to the public Agency. The calculated revenue uncertainty adjustment (option 1) is generated on this sheet using the P3 financing cost (WACC) for a toll concession whereas the user-specified risk premium input (option 2) is imported from the InpRisk sheet. The switch that determines which calculation method is also imported from the InpRisk sheet. Using indexation factors and phase flags from the Time&Esc sheet, the annual revenue uncertainty adjustment cash flow is calculated. For a more detailed discussion on revenue uncertainty adjustment, please refer to Part II.

5.2.4 Risk Output for VfM: Risk Outputs for VfM

This sheet presents the Risk output table for use in the VfM analysis.

5.2.5 Risk Output for PDBCA: Risk outputs for PDBCA

This sheet presents the Risk output table for use in the PDBCA.

5.3 Revenues

This section presents the revenue calculations, which are used in the VfM analysis. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 6 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the calculation sheet listed.

Figure 6: Model Navigator's Detailed-view Pane with List of Revenue Calculation Sheets

Figure 6: Model Navigator's Detailed-view Pane with List of Revenue Calculation Sheets
View larger version of Figure 6.

Text description of Figure 6.

Revenues

This screenshot depicts the revenues calculations title.

5.3.1 Revenues: Revenues Calculation

Revenues are calculated for tolled PSC and tolled P3 options. Revenues are not calculated for non-tolled facilities. Also, revenues are not calculated for the Delayed PSC as toll revenues are not relevant in the PDBCA module (Delayed PSC is not used in VfM). The Revenues sheet calculates three revenue cash flows: toll revenue, revenue leakage, and toll collection summary. The toll collection summary combines the first two and subtracts the revenue uncertainty adjustment calculated in the risk assessment.

Toll revenues are generated by 2 axle and 4+ axle vehicles. Their respective annual toll rates are imported from Time&Esc whereas traffic is imported from the Traffic sheet. Combining both yields the toll revenues before leakage. The toll leakage percentage is imported from the InpTraffic&Toll sheet and applied to the total toll revenue to determine the revenue leakage.

Subtracting the revenue leakage and the revenue uncertainty adjustment from the toll revenues yields the toll collection cash flow, which are used in the VfM analysis.

5.4 PSC Calculations for VfM

This section presents the various PSC calculations for the VfM analysis. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 7 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 7: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View With List of PSC Calculation Sheets for VfM Analysis

Figure 7: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View with List of PSC Calculation Sheets for VfM Analysis
View larger version of Figure 7.

Text description of Figure 7.

PSC

This screenshot lists the PSC calculations, including: PSC financing calculations, PSC reserves calculations and PSC cash waterfall.

5.4.1 PSC Financing: PSC Financing Calculations

This sheet contains the following main sections of calculations: Financing Requirements, Funding Contribution by Public Side, PSC Debt, and Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR). Please note that the Model Optimizer will change some of the values on this sheet, as the macro will seek to optimize the required subsidy.

Funding & Financing Requirement

This section determines the total funding and financing requirement. To calculate this, data from several sheets is imported, including pre-construction and construction costs, and base variability and pure risks. Furthermore, issuance fees and interest during construction are brought in from further calculations on the PSC Financing sheet. Lastly, subsidies are considered to determine the total funding required during the construction period. The funding requirement is calculated using a copy-paste macro to cut circularity.

Funding Contribution by Public Side

This section determines the funding contribution by the public side. In particular, it determines if the Agency needs to pre-finance any subsidy it may receive later.

PSC Debt

This section calculates the debt drawdown, fees, interest and repayment.

For a fully sculpted loan, the repayment depends on the cash flows available for debt service (CFADS) over the entire repayment period, the outstanding balance at the start of operations, and the interest rate. Based on this, a target Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) is determined which will be applied for the entire loan repayment period. In any given year, CFADS are divided by the target DSCR to determine how much interest and principal can be paid. If the amount available to debt service falls short of the amount needed to pay interest in any given year, the interest is capitalized. As a result, the debt service profile closely follows the CFADS profile.

If an annuity-type repayment is selected, the principal repayment is determined by the debt outstanding in a given year, the number of repayment periods remaining, and the interest rate. The interest payment is based on the outstanding balance at the start of the period.

Under both PSC debt solutions, the Model Optimizer iteratively searches for a required subsidy or availability payment that results in the lowest acceptable minimum DSCR. For a more detailed discussion on the Model Optimizer, please refer to Part I 2.4.

DSCR

The DSCR section calculates the yearly DSCR and the minimum DSCR. To do so, the yearly cash flow available for debt service (CFADS) is divided by the debt service cash flow to yield the yearly DSCR values. The calculated minimum DSCR value is the lowest observed value during the debt service period and will be compared against the required minimum DSCR that is provided by the user as an input.

5.4.2 PSC Reserves: PSC Reserves Calculations

The PSC Reserves sheet tracks the two reserve accounts: the Major Maintenance Reserve Account, and the Debt Service Reserve Account.

Major Maintenance Reserve Account

Every year, deposits are made into the Major Maintenance Reserve Account (MMRA) to ensure sufficient funds will be available to pay for major maintenance. The amount deposited is calculated such that by the time major maintenance is required, the amount in the MMRA is equal to the amount of the withdrawal. The anticipated amount is calculated by combining input from the O&M sheet and the Base Variability sheet. The model also considers the annual interest earned on the balance in the MMRA.

Debt Service Reserve Account

Debt service payments are imported from the PSC Financing sheet. Deposits and cash available for debt service payments are imported from the PSC CWF sheet. The previous balance, added deposits, and subtracted withdrawals result in the annual DSRA balance. Any balance in the account accrues interest.

5.4.3 PSC CWF: PSC Cash Waterfall

The PSC CWF contains the high-level cash waterfall data. On this sheet, a user can see the revenues, costs, debt service, deposits and withdrawals in reserve accounts, and net cash flows. The calculations flow from top to bottom and feed directly into the next set of cash flow calculations. Cash flows are imported from the following sheets:

  • Revenues
  • O&M
  • Construction
  • Base Variability
  • Pure Risks
  • Subsidy & Bid
  • PSC Financing
  • PSC Reserves

Together, these cash flows contribute to the calculation of:

  • Operating cash flow
  • Cash flow after other costs
  • Pre-financing cash flow
  • Cash flow available for MMRA
  • Cash flow available for debt service
  • Cash flow available for DSRA
  • Net cash flow
  • Retained cash balance

5.5 P3 Calculations for VfM

This section presents the various P3 calculations for the VfM analysis. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 8 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 8: Model Navigator's Detailed-view Pane with List of P3 Calculation Sheets for VfM Analysis

Figure 8: Model Navigator's Detailed-view Pane with List of P3 Calculation Sheets for VfM Analysis
View larger version of Figure 8.

Text description of Figure 8.

P3

This screenshot displays the P3 calculations list, including: P3 financing, P3 reserves, P3 CWF, P3 depreciation, P3 financial statements and P3 public sector cash waterfall.

5.5.1 P3 Financing: P3 Financing Calculations

This sheet contains the following main sections of calculations: Financing Requirement, Equity, Equity Bridge Loan, P3 Debt, Tax, Competitive Neutrality Adjustment, Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR), and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) calculation. Please note that the Model Optimizer will change some of the values on this sheet, as the macro will seek to optimize the P3 bid.

Funding & Financing Requirement

This section determines the total funding & financing requirement. To calculate this, data from several sheets is imported, including pre-construction and construction costs, and base variability and pure risks. Furthermore, issuance fees and interest during construction are brought in from further calculations on the P3 Financing sheet. Lastly, subsidies are considered to determine the total funding required during the construction period. The funding requirement is calculated using a copy-paste macro to cut circularity.

Equity

In this section, the amount of equity injection is determined. The calculated funding requirement is used in conjunction with the gearing ratio to determine how much equity is required.

Equity Bridge Loan

In this section, the equity bridge loan drawdown and repayment is calculated. The equity bridge loan is used to provide short-term financing that will be taken out by government subsidy, and not included in the debt portion of the gearing ratio.

P3 Debt

This section calculates the debt drawdown, fees, interest, and repayment.

For a fully sculpted loan, the repayment depends on the cash flows available for debt service (CFADS) over the entire repayment period, the outstanding balance at the start of operations, and the interest rate. Based on this, a target Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) is determined which will be applied for the entire loan repayment period. In any given year, CFADS are divided by the target DSCR to determine how much interest and principal can be paid. If the amount available to debt service falls short of the amount needed to pay interest in any given year, the interest is capitalized. As a result, the debt service profile closely follows the CFADS profile.

If an annuity-type repayment is selected, the principal repayment is determined by the debt outstanding in a given year, the number of repayment periods remaining, and the interest rate. The interest payment is based on the outstanding balance at the start of the period.

Under both P3 debt solutions, the Model Optimizer iteratively searches for a required subsidy or availability payment that results in the lowest acceptable minimum DSCR while still satisfying the equity return requirement. For a more detailed discussion on the Model Optimizer, please refer to Part I 2.4.

Tax

To determine how much tax needs to be paid by the P3 concessionaire in a given year, income profits and losses are tracked. This sheet tracks all profits, losses, and losses carried forward to determine the annual taxable profits. Federal and state taxes are then calculated based on the taxable profits.

Competitive Neutrality Adjustment

Based on the federal and state tax liability, self-insurance inputs, and credit subsidies inputs, the model calculates the competitive neutrality adjustment for each of these items.

DSCR

The DSCR section calculates the yearly DSCR and the minimum DSCR. To do so, the yearly cash flow available for debt service (CFADS) is divided by the debt service cash flow to yield the yearly DSCR values. The calculated minimum DSCR value is the lowest observed value during the debt service period and will be compared against the required minimum DSCR that is provided by the user as an input.

WACC Calculation for Lifecycle Performance Risk Premium Determination

The lifecycle performance risk premium calculation and revenue uncertainty adjustment requires the P3 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). This section brings together all relevant financing cash flows to determine the project's effective WACC.

5.5.2 P3 Reserves: P3 Reserves Calculations

The P3 Reserves sheet tracks the two reserve accounts: The Major Maintenance Reserve Account, and the Debt Service Reserve Account.

Major Maintenance Reserve Account

Every year, deposits are made into the Major Maintenance Reserve Account (MMRA) to ensure sufficient funds will be available to pay for major maintenance. The amount deposited is calculated such that by the time major maintenance is required, the amount in the MMRA is equal to the amount of the withdrawal. The anticipated amount is calculated by combining input from the O&M sheet and the Base Variability sheet. The model also considers the annual interest earned on the balance in the MMRA.

Debt Service Reserve Account

Debt service payments are imported from the P3 Financing sheet. Deposits and cash available for debt service payments are imported from the P3 CWF sheet. The previous balance, added deposits, and subtracted withdrawals result in the annual DSRA balance. Any balance in the account accrues interest.

5.5.3 P3 CWF: P3 Cash Waterfall

The P3 CWF contains the high-level cash waterfall data. On this sheet, a user can see the revenues, costs, debt service, movements in reserve accounts, and net cash flows. The calculations flow from top to bottom and feed directly into the next set of cash flow calculations. Cash flows are imported from the following sheets:

  • Revenues
  • O&M
  • Construction
  • Base Variability
  • Pure Risks
  • Subsidy & Bid
  • P3 Financing
  • P3 Reserves

Together, these cash flows contribute to the calculation of:

  • Operating cash flow
  • Cash flow after other costs
  • Pre-tax pre-financing cash flow
  • Post-tax pre-financing cash flow
  • Cash flow available for MMRA
  • Cash flow available for debt service
  • Cash flow available for DSRA
  • Net cash flow to equity
  • P3 retained cash balance
5.5.4 P3 Depreciation: P3 Depreciation Calculations

The P3 Depreciation sheet tracks two major assets: Fixed Asset and Major Maintenance Asset.

The model adds construction costs, pure construction risks, construction base variability costs, capitalized interest and debt fees during the construction phase to the fixed asset balance. Depreciation is calculated based on the remaining depreciation period and subtracted from the balance.

Expenses on major maintenance are added to the Major Maintenance Asset balance. Depreciation is calculated using a Major Maintenance Asset depreciation rate, which is based off the major maintenance periodicity.

5.5.5 P3 FinStat: P3 Financial Statements

This sheet contains two financial statements: The Income Statement and the Balance Sheet. The income statement calculates the annual operating profit, profit before interest and tax, profit before tax, profit after tax / net cash flow, and retained earnings. The balance sheet calculates for each year the project's assets and liabilities.

5.5.6 P3 (Pub) CWF: P3 (Public Sector) cash waterfall

This sheet tracks the cash waterfall from the public Agency's point of view. Toll revenues for the public side are imported from the Revenues sheet. Any availability payments made are imported from the Subsidy & Bid sheet. Retained operations and maintenance costs, as well as the base variability of those costs, are imported from the O&M sheet and the Base Variability sheet. Retained construction costs are imported from the Construction sheet. Together, these cash flows are used to create the P3 (Public) net cash flows and retained cash balance.

5.6 VfM Output Calculations

This section presents the VfM calculations performed to compare P3 and PSC project delivery. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 9 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 9: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of VfM Calculation Sheets

Figure 9: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of VfM Calculation Sheets
View larger version of Figure 9.

Text description of Figure 9.

VfM Outputs

This screenshot displays a list of VfM outputs, including: Subsidy and bid, VfM Graph data, VfM simplified output, VfM output summary, VfM comparison graph, VfM PSC graph, VfM P3 public graph, VfM private graph, and financing outputs.

5.6.1 Subsidy & Bid: Subsidy, Concession Fee & Availability Payment Optimization

This sheet calculates the required PSC subsidy and the required P3 subsidy or availability payment. The sheet uses macros to determine the lowest acceptable subsidy/availability payment. The sheet contains the following elements:

  • PSC - Subsidy initiation: Calculation to determine a starting value of the PSC subsidy for the macro optimization process.
  • PSC - Calculated subsidy: Macro-driven PSC subsidy calculation.
  • PSC - Subsidy/milestone payment calculation: Calculation of input subsidy/milestone payment.
  • PSC - Project NPV: Calculation of project NPV under PSC.
  • P3 - Availability payment initiation: Calculation to determine a starting value of the P3 availability payment for the macro optimization process.
  • P3 - Availability payment calculation: Macro-driven P3 availability payment calculation.
  • P3 - Subsidy / (concession fee) initiation: Calculation to determine a starting value of the P3 subsidy/concession fee for the macro optimization process.
  • P3 - Subsidy / (concession fee) calculation: Macro-driven P3 subsidy/concession fee calculation.
  • P3 - Subsidy/milestone payment calculation: Calculation of input subsidy/milestone payment.
  • P3 - Cash flow to equity NPV calculation: Calculation of NPV of cash flow to equity.
  • P3 - Equity IRR: Calculation of internal rate of return (IRR) of cash flow to equity.
5.6.2 VfM Graph Data: Data Used for VfM Output Graphs

This sheet calculates the net present values of costs and revenues and contains data used in the various output tables and graphs.

5.6.3 VfM Simplified Output: Simplified VfM Output Table and Graph

This sheet presents a simplified VfM output summary table and graph.

5.6.4 VfM Output Summary: VfM Output Summary Tables and Graphs

This sheet presents VfM output summary tables and graphs.

5.6.5 VfM Comparison Graph: Graph Comparing PSC and P3

This sheet presents the VfM graph comparing PSC and P3.

5.6.6 VfM PSC Graph: Graphs with Costs & Revenues to Agency under PSC

This sheet presents graphs with costs and revenues to the Agency under a PSC.

5.6.7 VfM P3 (Public) Graph: Graphs with Costs & Revenues to Agency under P3

This sheet presents graphs with costs and revenue to the agency under a P3.

5.6.8 VfM P3 (Private) Graph: Graphs with Costs & Revenues to Developer under P3

This sheet presents graphs with costs and revenue to the developer (i.e., concessionaire) under a P3

5.6.9 Financing Outputs: Debt Service and Financial Outputs

This sheet presents debt service and financial outputs.

5.7 Travel Cost Calculation

This section presents the travel cost calculations. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 10 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 10: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Calculation Sheets for Travel Costs

Figure 10: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Calculation Sheets for Travel Costs
View larger version of Figure 10.

Text description of Figure 10.

Travel Costs

This screenshot displays a listing of travel costs calculations, including: Speed, travel time cost, construction delays, O&M delays, incident delays, non-fuel cost, fuel cost, accidents, and emissions.

5.7.1 Speed: Travel Speed Calculations

This sheet calculates speeds for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. These speeds are used to compute travel time costs, incident delays, O&M-related travel delays, construction-related travel delays, non-fuel costs, fuel costs, and emissions costs. The following presents the order of calculations in this sheet.

  1. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) capacities for peak, off-peak, and weekends are calculated using inputs from InpTraffic&Toll.
  2. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) V/C ratios for peak, off-peak, and weekends are calculated using traffic volumes from the Traffic sheet and capacities calculated in the above step.
  3. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) speeds for peak, off-peak, and weekends are calculated using volume/delay function (VDF) parameters, free flow speeds from the InpTraffic&Toll sheet, and the V/C ratios calculated above.
5.7.2 Travel Time Cost: Travel Time Cost per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates travel time costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. These travel time costs are also used to compute construction and O&M-related travel delays and incident delays.

No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) travel time costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends are calculated using segment length from the InpTraffic&Toll sheet, vehicle occupancy and value of time inputs from the InpBCA sheet, operations flags from the InpSeries sheet, and congested speeds from the Speed sheet. The calculations of congested travel time costs are performed separately for 2 axle and 4+ axle vehicles. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of travel time costs, please refer to Part II.

5.7.3 Construction Delays: Construction Delays per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates construction-related travel delay costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) construction-related travel delay costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends for 2 and 4+ axle vehicles are calculated using input parameters from the various input sheets and travel time costs from the Travel Time Costs sheet. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of construction-related delays, please refer to Part II.

5.7.4 O&M Delays: O&M Delays per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates O&M-related travel delay costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) O&M-related travel delay costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends for 2 and 4+ axle vehicles are calculated using input parameters from the various input sheets and travel time costs from the Travel Time Costs sheet. This sheet borrows calculations performed in the Construction Delays sheet so as to not repeat some of the calculations. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of O&M-related travel delays, please refer to Part II.

5.7.5 Incident Delays: Incident Delays per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates incident delay costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) incident delay costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends for 2 and 4+ axle vehicles are calculated using speed adjustment factors from the BCA input sheets and travel time costs from the Travel Time Costs sheet. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of incident delays, please refer to Part II.

5.7.6 Non-Fuel Cost: Non-Fuel Costs per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates non-fuel costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) non-fuel costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends for 2 and 4+ axle vehicles are calculated using input parameters from the various input sheets. These calculations incorporate pavement quality adjustments. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of non-fuel costs, please refer to Part II.

5.7.7 Fuel Cost: Fuel Costs per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates fuel costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) fuel costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends for 2 and 4+ axle vehicles are calculated using input parameters from the various input sheets. These calculations incorporate pavement quality adjustments. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of fuel costs, please refer to Part II.

5.7.8 Accidents: Accident Costs per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates accident costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) accident costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends for 2 and 4+ axle vehicles are calculated using input parameters from the various input sheets. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of accident costs, please refer to Part II.

5.7.9 Emissions: Emissions Costs Calculations

This sheet calculates emissions costs for each year in the analysis period for the various delivery models. No Build and Build (ML/TL and GPL) emissions costs for peak, off-peak, and weekends for 2 and 4+ axle vehicles are calculated using input parameters from the various input sheets as well as traffic projections from the Traffic sheet. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of emission costs, please refer to Part II.

5.7.10 Transit: Transit Passenger Calculations

This sheet calculates transit passenger volumes for each year in the analysis period for both the No Build and Build. The sheet effectively mirrors large sections of the "Traffic" worksheet, using an identical input structure and largely following the same calculation logic.

5.7.11 Carpooling: Carpooling Passenger Calculations

This sheet calculates carpooling passenger volumes for each year in the analysis period for both the No Build and Build. The sheet effectively mirrors large sections of the "Traffic" worksheet, using an identical input structure and largely following the same calculation logic.

5.8 Benefits

This section presents the benefits calculations. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 11 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 11: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Benefits Calculation Sheets

Figure 11: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of Benefits Calculation Sheets
View larger version of Figure 11.

Text description of Figure 11.

Benefits

This screenshot displays a list of benefits calculations, including: benefits per vehicle, benefits existing traffic, benefits induced traffic, transit benefits, carpooling benefits, and net benefits.

5.8.1 Benefits per Vehicle: Benefits per Vehicle Calculations

This sheet calculates benefits per vehicle for the PSC, Delayed PSC, and P3 by subtracting the No Build cost per vehicle from the Build cost per vehicle for each year in the analysis period. The following benefits per vehicle are calculated in this sheet:

  • Travel time benefits
  • Construction-related travel delay reduction benefits
  • O&M-related travel delay reduction benefits
  • Incident delay reduction benefits
  • Non-fuel cost reduction benefits
  • Fuel cost reduction benefits
  • Accident reduction benefits
  • Emissions reduction benefits
5.8.2 Benefits Existing Traffic: Benefits to Existing Traffic Calculations

This sheet calculates benefits for existing traffic for the PSC, Delayed PSC, and P3 by multiplying the benefits per vehicle for each benefit type by the existing traffic for each year in the analysis period. The following benefits are calculated in this sheet:

  • Travel time savings
  • Construction-related travel delay reduction benefits
  • O&M-related travel delay reduction benefits
  • Incident delay reduction benefits
  • Non-fuel cost reduction benefits
  • Fuel cost reduction benefits
  • Accident reduction benefits
5.8.3 Benefits Induced Traffic: Benefits to Induced Traffic Calculations

This sheet calculates benefits for induced traffic for the PSC, Delayed PSC, and P3. Induced traffic benefits consist of a consumer surplus and a producer surplus. To calculate the consumer surplus, the induced traffic is multiplied by half the difference in user costs between the No Build and Build. This "rule of half" (see Part II for a discussion on the "rule of half") is applied to capture the triangular shape of the consumer surplus, i.e., the triangle under the demand curve that corresponds to the induced traffic created by the shift in supply due to the road expansion. The user costs include:

  • Travel time benefits
  • Construction-related travel delay reduction benefits
  • O&M-related travel delay reduction benefits
  • Incident delay reduction benefits
  • Non-fuel cost reduction benefits
  • Fuel cost reduction benefits
  • Accident reduction benefits
  • Difference in tolls between No Build and Build

To calculate the producer surplus, the induced traffic is multiplied by the Build toll. The induced traffic benefits equal the sum of consumer and producer surplus. The induced traffic benefits are subsequently allocated to the different benefit categories, using the existing traffic benefit split. For a more detailed discussion on calculation of induced traffic benefits, please refer to Part II.

5.8.4 Transit Benefits: Transit Passenger Benefits Calculations

This sheet calculates the travel time cost savings for existing transit passengers under each delivery model, using the calculated travel time savings for 4+ axle vehicles. Based on the travel time cost savings for existing transit passengers, the model calculates the societal benefits for induced transit passengers using the "rule of half" in order to determine the total transit passenger benefits under each delivery model.

5.8.5 Carpooling Benefits: Carpooling Passenger Benefits Calculations

This sheet calculates the travel time cost savings for existing carpooling passengers under each delivery model, using the calculated travel time savings for 2 axle vehicles. Based on the travel time cost savings for existing carpooling passengers, the model calculates the societal benefits for induced carpooling passengers using the "rule of half" in order to determine the total carpooling passenger benefits under each delivery model.

5.8.6 Net Benefits: Net Benefits Calculations

This sheet calculates the net benefits for each year in the analysis period for the PSC, Delayed PSC, and P3 compared to the No Build. The following presents the order of calculations in this sheet.

  • Total benefits are calculated by adding existing traffic benefits and induced traffic benefits.
  • The net present value of total benefits is calculated using the social discount factor.
  • The net present value of total costs and risks is calculated using the social discount factor.
  • Impact summaries are calculated for each Build alternative.

5.9 PDBCA Output Calculations

This section presents the PDBCA calculations performed to compare P3, PSC, and Delayed PSC project delivery. In order to be able to view the sheets described in this section, please ensure you have enabled the detailed-level view in the Model Navigator. Figure 12 shows the Model Navigator's detailed-level view pane with the different calculation sheets listed.

Figure 12: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of PDBCA Calculation Sheets

Figure 12: Model Navigator's Detailed-level View Pane with List of PDBCA Calculation Sheets
View larger version of Figure 12.

Text description of Figure 12.

PDBCA Outputs

This screenshot lists calculations for the PDBCA outputs, including: PDBCA graph data, PDBCA output summary, PDBCA incremental comparison, PDBCA delayed PSC graph, PDBCA PSC graph, and PDBCA P3 graph.

5.9.1 PDBCA Graph Data: Data Used for PDBCA Output Graphs

This sheet calculates the net present values of costs and benefits and contains data used in the various output tables and graphs.

5.9.2 PDBCA Output Summary: PDBCA Output Summary Tables and Graphs

This sheet presents PDBCA output summary tables and graphs.

5.9.3 PDBCA Incremental Comparison: Table and Graph Comparing Delayed PSC, PSC and P3

This sheet presents tables and a graph comparing Delayed PSC, PSC, and P3.

5.9.4 PDBCA Delayed PSC Graph: Graphs with Costs & Benefits to Society under Delayed PSC

This sheet presents graphs with costs and benefits to society under Delayed PSC.

5.9.5 PDBCA PSC Graph: Graphs with Costs & Benefits to Society under PSC

This sheet presents graphs with costs and benefits to society under PSC.

5.9.6 PDBCA P3 Graph: Graphs with Costs & Benefits to Society under P3

This sheet presents graphs with costs and benefits to society under P3.

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