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P3-VALUE 2.2 User Guide and Concept Guide

January 2019
Table of Contents

Tables

Figures

Acronyms
AP Availability Payment
BCA Benefit Cost Analysis
BS Balance Sheet
CF Cash Flow
CFADS Cash Flows Available to Debt Service
DSCR Debt Service Coverage Ratio
DSRA Debt Service Reserve Account
GPL General Purpose Lanes
IRI International Roughness Index
IRR Internal Rate of Return
ML/TL Managed Lanes or Tolled Lanes
MMRA Major Maintenance Reserve Account
O&M Operations and Maintenance
PDBCA Project Delivery Benefit-Cost Analysis
P&L Profit & Loss
PSC Public Sector Comparator or Conventional Delivery
P3 Public-Private Partnership
V/C Volume/Capacity Ratio
VDF Volume Delay Function
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
 

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6 Model Outputs

Based on the inputs provided, P3-VALUE 2.2 performs the calculations detailed in the previous chapter. This chapter presents the various outputs for the risk assessment, financial viability assessment, VfM analysis and PDBCA. These outputs help the user understand what financial and economic differences to expect from a public-private partnership compared to Conventional Delivery.

6.1 Risk Assessment Outputs

Based on the risk inputs and calculation, the model provides separate risk outputs for VfM and PDBCA. Table 3 below shows sample outputs for VfM.

Table 3: Sample Risk Assessment Outputs for VfM

Table 3: Sample Risk Assessment Outputs for VfM
View larger version of Table 3.

Text of Table 3.

Conventional Delivery Retained Risks under P3 Transferred Risks under P3
Units >> NPV @ 4.00% USD million Nominal total USD million NPV @ 4.00% USD million Nominal total USD million NPV @ 7.96% USD million Nominal total USD million
Pure risks (construction)
Design risk $10M $11M $1M $1M $7M $9M
Engineering & construction risk $8M $9M $1M $1M $6M $8M
Planning & approval risk $1M $1M $0M $0M $1M $1M
Environmental risk $11M $13M $1M $1M $8M $10M
Right of way/utilities risk $8M $9M $1M $1M $6M $7M
Commercial/procurement risk - - - - - -
Latent defect - - - - - -
Force majeure $4M $5M $0M $0M $3M $4M
Political risk $1M $1M $0M $0M $1M $1M
Insurance risk - - - - - -
Public sentiment risk - - - - - -
Changes in law & policy - - - - - -
Pure risks (operations)
Latent defect $13M $35M $1M $3M $5M $29M
Operations risk $4M $12M $0M $1M $2M $10M
Maintenance risk $6M $15M $1M $1M $2M $12M
Force majeure $3M $9M $0M $1M $1M $7M
Insurance risk - - - - - -
Changes in law & policy - - - - - -
Total pure risks $69M $121M $6M $11M $42M $98M
Base variability
Pre-construction cost $3M $4M $1M $1M $3M $3M
Construction cost $64M $73M $6M $7M $47M $60M
O&M cost $13M $36M $1M $3M $5M $30M
Total base variability $80M $113M $8M $11M $55M $92M
Lifecycle performance risk premium $126M $309M Transferred to P3 $57M $262M
Revenue uncertainty adjustment $135M $392M - - $62M $397M
TOTAL RISKS $410M $935M $15M $22M $215M $850M

Table 4 shows sample risk assessment outputs for PDBCA.

Table 4: Sample Risk Assessment Outputs for PDBCA

Table 4: Sample Risk Assessment Outputs for PDBCA
View larger version of Table 4.

Text of Table 4.

Delayed Conventional Delivery Conventional Delivery P3 Delivery
Units >> NPV @ 2.00% USD million Real total USD million NPV @ 2.00% USD million Real total USD million NPV @ 2.00% USD million Real total USD million
Pure risks (construction)
Design risk $9M $11M $10M $11M $9M $10M
Engineering & construction risk $7M $9M $8M $9M $7M $8M
Planning & approval risk $1M $1M $1M $1M $1M $1M
Environmental risk $10M $12M $11M $12M $10M $11M
Right of way/utilities risk $7M $8M $8M $8M $7M $7M
Commercial/procurement risk - - - - - -
Latent defect - - - - - -
Force majeure $4M $4M $4M $4M $4M $4M
Political risk $1M $1M $1M $1M $1M $1M
Insurance risk - - - - - -
Public sentiment risk - - - - - -
Changes in law & policy - - - - - -
Pure risks (operations)
Latent defect $11M $18M $13M $21M $12M $19M
Operations risk $4M $6M $4M $7M $4M $7M
Maintenance risk $5M $8M $6M $9M $5M $8M
Force majeure $3M $5M $3M $5M $3M $5M
Insurance risk - - - - - -
Changes in law & policy - - - - - -
Total pure risks $60M $83M $69M $88M $63M $80M
Base variability
Pre-construction cost $3M $3M $3M $3M $4M $4M
Construction cost $57M $68M $63M $68M $59M $62M
O&M cost $10M $18M $13M $21M $12M $19M
Total base variability $71M $89M $80M $92M $75M $86M
Lifecycle performance risk premium $102M $168M $125M $191M $108M $164M
TOTAL RISKS $234M $340M $273M $371M $246M $330M

6.2 Financial Viability Assessment Outputs

Based on the financial inputs and calculation, the model provides the following financial outputs for both the Conventional Delivery and P3:

  • Debt repayment profile
  • Debt Service Coverage Ratios (DSCR)
  • Sources of funding and financing

Furthermore, the model provides a number of additional outputs for the private financing structure. Please note that the financial viability assessment outputs can be found under the VfM outputs in the model.

Figure 13 shows a sample debt service profile for either Conventional Delivery or P3.

Figure 13: Sample Conventional Delivery or P3 Debt Service Profile

Figure 13: Sample Conventional Delivery or P3 Debt Service Profile

View larger version of Figure 13.

Text description of Figure 13.

Sample Conventional Delivery or P3 debt service profile

This chart shows increasing Principal Repayment over time, while Interest Payments are reduced drastically in that same timeframe.

Table 5 below shows sample key financial outputs under Conventional Delivery.

Table 5: Sample Conventional Delivery Key Financial Outputs

Table 5: Sample Conventional Delivery Key Financial Outputs

View larger version of Table 5.

Text of Table 5.

Conventional Delivery - Debt service coverage ratio Ratio Unit
Average calculated DSCR 1.30 ratio
Minimum calculated DSCR 1.30 ratio
Minimum calculated vs. minimum required DSCR alert - alert
Conventional Delivery - Sources of funding and financing Amount
Debt amount $352M  
Subsidy/milestone payment $110M  
Additional required subsidy $164M  
Total sources of funding and financing $627M  

Table 6 below shows sample key financial outputs under P3:

Table 6: Sample P3 Key Financial Outputs

Table 6: Sample P3 Key Financial Outputs
View larger version of Table 6.

Text of Table 6.

P3 - Debt service coverage ratio Ratio Unit
Average calculated DSCR 1.63 ratio
Minimum calculated DSCR 1.63 ratio
Minimum calculated DSCR vs. minimum required DSCR alert - alert
P3 - Sources of funding and financing Amount
Debt amount $251M  
Subsidy/milestone payment to Developer $108M  
Additional required subsidy to Developer $71M  
Equity contribution $84M  
Total sources of funding and financing $513M  
P3 - Financial outputs Value Unit
Pre-tax equity IRR 12.00% % p.a.
Post-tax equity IRR 10.34% % p.a.
Pre-tax P3 WACC 8.84% % p.a.
Post-tax P3 WACC 7.96% % p.a.
Additional required subsidy from Agency (if applicable) $71M  
Concession fee to Agency (if applicable)    
Annual availability payment (if applicable)    
Interest capitalized during operations? (Yes, No) Yes text
No. of years interest is capitalized during operations 5 years
Maximum outstanding debt $261M  
Maximum gearing* 75.75% %
* Maximum gearing may exceed the input gearing due to interest capitalization during the early years of the concession (only if sculpted debt financing is used).

6.3 VfM Outputs

This section presents the VfM outputs. Figure 14 shows the Model Navigator's high-level view pane with the different VfM output sheets listed.

Figure 14: Model Navigator's High-level View Pane with List of VfM Output Sheets

Figure 14. Model Navigator's High-level View Pane with List of VfM Output Sheets
View larger version of Figure 14.

Text description of Figure 14.

VfM Outputs

This screenshot of the model navigator shows the VfM Output sheets, including: VfM simplified outputs, VfM output summary, VfM comparison graph, VfM PSC graph, VfM P3 public graph, VfM P3 private graph, and financing outputs.

6.3.1 VfM Simplified Output

As shown in Table 7, the VfM Simplified Output sheet provides the user with a high-level table comparing Conventional Delivery to P3. As shown in Figure 15 , the sheet also shows a visual representation of the VfM results.

Table 7: Sample Revenues and Costs Under PSC and P3

Table 7: Sample Revenues and Costs Under PSC and P3
View larger version of Table 7.

Text of Table 7

REVENUES & COSTS (NPV @ 4.00%, 2018) PSC P3
Toll revenues
Toll revenues to Agency $784M -
Toll revenues to P3 Developer ////////// $806M
Toll revenues subtotal $784M $806M
Cost component 1a: Total/transferred base costs (including risks transferred to subcontractors)
Total (PSC)/Transferred (P3) pre-construction (including private procurement costs) ($31M) ($31M)
Total (PSC)/Transferred (P3) construction costs ($480M) ($400M)
Total (PSC)/Transferred (P3) O&M costs (including private procurement costs) ($168M) ($141M)
Base cost subtotal 1a ($680M) ($572M)
Cost component 1b: Retained base costs (P3 only)
Retained O&M costs (including P3 oversight costs) ////////// ($3M)
Retained construction costs ////////// ($44M)
Retained O&M costs (including P3 oversight costs) ////////// ($16M)
Retained base cost subtotal 1b - ($63M)
Base costs subtotal (1a + 1b) ($680M) ($635M)
Cost component 2: Financing costs
Financing cost ($3M) ($387M)
Financing cost subtotal ($3M) ($387M)
P3 Shadow Bid (Revenues to P3 minus cost components 1a & 2) N.A. ($153M)
Cost component 3: Long-term risks retained by Agency
Calculated market value of lifecycle performance risk ($126M) //////////
Calculated market value of revenue uncertainty adjustment ($135M) -
Long-term risks retained by Agency subtotal ($261M) -
Cost component 4: Ancillary costs & cost savings
Procurement & oversight cost in the design-build phase ($5M) ($9M)
No Build Cost Savings $250M $259M
Ancillary costs & cost savings subtotal $245M $250M
Cost component 5: Competitive neutrality adjustment
State taxes ////////// $35m
Federal taxes ////////// $78m
Value of public agency self-insurance ////////// -
Net credit subsidy adjustment (NPV of PSC credit subsidy - NPV of P3 credit subsidy) ////////// -
Competitive neutrality adjustment subtotal - $113M
Total net value after revenue $86M $147M
Note: Calculated market value of lifecycle performance risk ($126M) //////////
Note: Calculated market value of revenue uncertainty adjustment ($135M) //////////
Social welfare benefits due to P3 delivery (excluding No Build cost savings)   $167M
Social welfare benefits due to project acceleration   $412M

Figure 15: Visual Representation of Sample VfM Results

Figure 15: Visual Representation of Sample VfM Results
View larger version of Figure 15.

Text description of Figure 15.

Visual Representation of Sample VfM Results

This screen capture shows the detailed visual representation of various cost components and revenues.

6.3.2 VfM Output Summary

The VfM Output Summary sheet contains a summary of all relevant cash flows to either the Agency or the P3 concessionaire under Conventional Delivery and P3:

  • Costs and revenues under Conventional Delivery
  • Costs and revenues to Agency under P3
  • Costs and revenues to Developer (i.e., Concessionaire) under P3

Sample outputs for a conventionally procured project are presented in the Figure 16 and Table 8 below.

Figure 16: Sample Cash Flows Under Conventional Delivery

Figure 16: Sample Cash Flows Under Conventional Delivery
View larger version of Figure 16.

Text description of Figure 16.

Sample Cash Flows Under Conventional Delivery

This bar chart shows various items of cash flow over time, such as Toll Revenues, O&M costs, No Build O&M Cost Savings, Pre-construction & Construction costs, Base variability, Pure risks, Lifecycle performance risk, and Financing Feeds, with costs remaining relatively stable after initial startup, but Revenues increasing over time.

Table 8: Sample Costs & Revenues Under Conventional Delivery

Table 8: Sample Costs & Revenues Under Conventional Delivery
View larger version of Table 8.

Text of Table 8.

Costs & revenues under Conventional Delivery NPV @ 4.00% Nominal total
Toll revenues $784M $2,274M
Pre-construction & construction costs ($406M) ($464M)
O&M costs ($129M) ($363M)
No Build O&M cost savings $250M $680M
Base variability ($80M) ($113M)
Pure risks ($69M) ($121M)
Financing fees ($3M) ($4M)
Unadjusted net revenues / (costs) under Conventional Delivery $346M $1,890M
Calculated market value of revenue uncertainty adjustment ($135M) ($392M)
Calculated market value of lifecycle performance risk ($126M) ($309M)
Adjusted net revenues / (costs) under Conventional Delivery $86M $1,189M

If the project is procured as a P3, a distinction can be made between cash flows (and costs/revenues) to the Agency and to the Developer (i.e., Concessionaire). First, the Agency's perspective is presented, as in Figure 17 and Table 9 below.

Figure 17: Sample Cash Flows to Agency Under P3

Figure 17: Sample Cash Flows to Agency Under P3
View larger version of Figure 17.

Text description of Figure 17.

Sample Cash Flows Under Conventional Delivery

This bar chart shows various items of cash flow over time, such as Toll revenues for public side, O&M costs, No Build O&M cost savings, Pre-construction & construction costs, Base variability, Pure risks, Net subsidy from Agency to Developer, and Competitive neutrality adjustment, with costs remaining relatively stable after initial startup, but savings increasing gradually over time.

Table 9: Sample Costs & Revenues to Agency Under P3

Table 9: Sample Costs & Revenues to Agency Under P3
View larger version of Table 9.

Text of Table 9.

Costs & revenues to Agency under P3 NPV @ 4.00% Nominal total
Toll revenues (for public side) - -
Pre-construction & construction costs (retained) ($46M) ($51M)
O&M costs (retained) ($12M) ($33M)
No Build O&M cost savings $259M $691M
Base variability (retained) ($8M) ($11M)
Pure risks (retained) ($6M) ($11M)
Net subsidy from Agency to Developer ($153M) ($179M)
Unadjusted total net revenues / (costs) to Agency under P3 $33M $406M
Calculated market value of revenue uncertainty adjustment (for public side - -
Competitive neutrality adjustment $113M $410M
Adjusted total net revenues / (costs) to Agency under P3 $147M $816M

Next, the Developer's perspective is presented as in Figure 18 and Table 10 below.

Figure 18: Sample Cash Flows to Developer Under P3

Figure 18: Sample Cash Flows to Developer Under P3
View larger version of Figure 18.

Text description of Figure 18.

Sample Cash Flows to Developer Under P3

This bar chart shows various items of cash flow over time, such as Toll revenues for private side, O&M costs, Pre-construction & construction costs, Base variability, Pure risks, Net subsidy from Agency to Developer, Financing Fees, and Taxes, with costs remaining relatively stable after initial startup, but savings increasing gradually over time.

Table 10: Sample Costs & Revenues to Developer Under P3

Table 10: Sample Costs & Revenues to Developer Under P3
View larger version of Table 10.

Text of Table 10.

Costs & revenues to Developer under P3 NPV @ 7.96% Nominal total
Toll revenues for private side $360M $2,302M
Pre-construction & construction costs (transferred) ($305M) ($382M)
O&M costs (transferred) ($50M) ($296M)
Base variability (transferred) ($55M) ($92M)
Pure risks (transferred) ($42M) ($98M)
Net subsidy from Agency to Developer $132M $179M
Financing fees ($2M) ($3M)
Taxes ($37M) ($410M)
Total net revenues / (costs) to Developer under P3 ($0M) $1,200M
6.3.3 VfM Comparison Graph

The next element in the VfM outputs is the VfM Comparison Graph. This graph visually compares the net present value of costs and revenues to the Agency and provides a clear indication to users whether P3 delivery is expected to yield Value-for-Money to the Agency.

Sample outputs are presented in Figure 19 below.

Figure 19: Sample VfM Comparison Graph

Figure 19: Sample VfM Comparison Graph
View larger version of Figure 19.

Text description of Figure 19.

Sample VfM Comparison Graph

This bar chart shows a comparison of Conventional Delivery to P3 Delivery, considering elements of Retained revenues, Retained construction, O&M cost savings, Retained risks, Financing fees, Competitive neutrality adjustment, and Net subsidy from Agency to Developer. The Conventional Delivery model has significantly higher costs and profits, especially with revenues.

6.3.4 Detailed Cost & Revenue Graphs

Lastly, the model provides three detailed cost and revenue graphs showing the relevant cash flows to either the Agency or the P3 concessionaire under Conventional Delivery and P3:

  • Costs and revenues under Conventional Delivery
  • Costs and revenues to Agency under P3
  • Costs and revenues to Developer under P3

These are the same graphs as those included on the VfM Output Summary sheet, but are larger to enable users to better identify the timing and size of various cost items.

6.4 PDBCA Outputs

This section presents the PDBCA outputs. Figure 20 shows the Model Navigator's high-level view pane with the different PDBCA output sheets listed.

Figure 20: Model Navigator's High-level View Pane with List of PDBCA Output Sheets

Figure 20: Model Navigator's High-level View Pane with List of PDBCA Output Sheets
View larger version of Figure 20.

Text description of Figure 20.

PDBCA Outputs

This screenshot lists the PDBCA output sheets, including: PDBCA Output summary, PDBCA incremental comparison, PDBCA delayed PSC graph, PDBCA PSC graph, and PDBCA P3 graph.

6.4.1 PDBCA Output Summary

The PDBCA Output Summary sheet contains a summary of all relevant costs and benefits under Delayed Conventional Delivery, Conventional Delivery, and P3:

  • Benefits and costs under Delayed Conventional Delivery
  • Benefits and costs under Conventional Delivery
  • Benefits and costs under P3

Sample benefits and costs for the three delivery models are presented in Figure 21, Figure 22, and Figure 23 below.

Figure 21: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Delayed Conventional Delivery

Figure 21: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Delayed Conventional Delivery
View larger version of Figure 21.

Text description of Figure 21.

Sample Benefits and Costs Under Delayed Conventional Delivery

This screen capture shows the various benefits and costs found under delayed conventional delivery over time.

Figure 22: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Conventional Delivery

Figure 22: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Conventional Delivery
View larger version of Figure 22.

Text description of Figure 22.

Sample Benefits and Costs Under Conventional Delivery

This screen capture shows the various benefits and costs found under conventional delivery over time.

Figure 23: Sample Benefits and Costs Under P3

Figure 23: Sample Benefits and Costs Under P3
View larger version of Figure 23.

Text description of Figure 23.

Sample Benefits and Costs Under P3 Delivery

This screen capture shows the various benefits and costs found under P3 delivery over time

Table 11, Table 12, and Table 13 below present the same benefits and costs for the three delivery models.

Table 11: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Delayed Conventional Delivery

Table 11: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Delayed Conventional Delivery
View larger version of Table 11.

Text of Table 11.

Benefits & costs under Delayed Conventional Delivery NPV @ 2.00% Real total
Units >> USD million USD million
Δ Travel time cost $1,828M $3,251M
Δ Delays due to construction ($48M) ($57M)
Δ Delays due to O&M $10M $17M
Δ Delays due to incidents $1,360M $2,388M
Δ Non-fuel costs $111M $193M
Δ Fuel costs ($109M) ($176M)
Δ Accident costs $292M $507M
Δ Emissions cost ($127M) ($226M)
Highway benefits subtotal $3,318M $5,898M
Δ Transit passenger benefits $22M $40M
Δ Carpooling passenger benefits $41M $74M
Transit and carpool passenger benefits subtotal $64M $114M
Total benefits $3,381M $6,012M
O&M No Build cost savings $205M $350M
Real construction costs ($370M) ($435M)
Real operations costs ($104M) ($180M)
Real base variability ($71M) ($89M)
Real pure risks ($60M) ($83M)
Lifecycle performance risk ($102M) ($168M)
Total costs ($502M) ($605M)
Total net benefits / (costs) under Delayed Conventional Delivery $2,879M $5,407M
Benefit cost ratio under Delayed Conventional Delivery 6.73 N/A

Table 12: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Conventional Delivery

Table 12: Sample Benefits and Costs Under Conventional Delivery
View larger version of Table 12.

Text of Table 12.

Benefits & costs under Conventional Delivery NPV @ 2.00% Real total
Units >> USD million USD million
Δ Travel time cost $2,058M $3,521M
Δ Delays due to construction ($50M) ($54M)
Δ Delays due to O&M $11M $19M
Δ Delays due to incidents $1,573M $2,639M
Δ Non-fuel costs $132M $217M
Δ Fuel costs ($140M) ($213M)
Δ Accident costs $345M $568M
Δ Emissions cost ($147M) ($250M)
Highway benefits subtotal $3,781M $6,446M
Δ Transit passenger benefits $25M $43M
Δ Carpooling passenger benefits $46M $79M
Transit and carpool passenger benefits subtotal $71M $123M
Total benefits $3,852M $6,568M
O&M No Build cost savings $248M $400M
Real construction costs ($408M) ($435M)
Real operations costs ($128M) ($210M)
Real base variability ($80M) ($92M)
Real pure risks ($69M) ($88M)
Lifecycle performance risk ($125M) ($191M)
Total costs ($561M) ($616M)
Total net benefits / (costs) under Conventional Delivery $3,291M $5,952M
Benefit cost ratio under Conventional Delivery 6.87 N/A

Table 13: Sample Benefits and Costs Under P3

Table 13: Sample Benefits and Costs Under P3
View larger version of Table 13.

Text of Table 13.

Benefits & costs under P3 NPV @ 2.00% Real total
Units >> USD million USD million
Δ Travel time cost $2,103M $3,569M
Δ Delays due to construction ($36M) ($38M)
Δ Delays due to O&M $14M $22M
Δ Delays due to incidents $1,673M $2,780M
Δ Non-fuel costs $136M $221M
Δ Fuel costs ($148M) ($221M)
Δ Accident costs $356M $580M
Δ Emissions cost ($151M) ($255M)
Highway benefits subtotal $3,946M $6,660M
Δ Transit passenger benefits $26M $44M
Δ Carpooling passenger benefits $47M $80M
Transit and carpool passenger benefits subtotal $72M $124M
Total benefits $4,019M $6,784M
O&M No Build cost savings $257M $410M
Real construction costs ($388M) ($410M)
Real operations costs ($119M) ($193M)
Real base variability ($75M) ($86M)
Real pure risks ($63M) ($80M)
Lifecycle performance risk ($108M) ($164M)
Total costs ($497M) ($523M)
Total benefits / (costs) under P3 $3,522M $6,261M
Benefit cost ratio under P3 8.09 N/A
6.4.2 PDBCA Comparison Table

The PDBCA Incremental Comparison sheet provides an incremental BCA analysis of the different delivery models. It first compares the Delayed Conventional Delivery to the No Build (Step 1) to determine whether the project's benefits outweigh its costs. Next, the model compares the Conventional Delivery to the Delayed Conventional Delivery to analyze the impact of the funding constraint (Step 2). Lastly, it compares P3 to Conventional Delivery to determine the impact of P3 delivery (Step 3). Sample output tables for the incremental analysis are shown below in Table 14, Table 15, and Table 16.

Table 14: Compare Delayed Conventional Delivery to No Build (Step 1)

Table 14: Compare Delayed Conventional Delivery to No Build (Step 1)
View larger version of Table 14.

Text of Table 14.

Step 1: Compare Delayed Conventional Delivery to No Build NPV @ 2.00%
Travel time savings (Delayed PSC - No Build) $1,828M
Change in delays due to construction (Delayed PSC - No Build) ($48M)
Change in delays due to O&M (Delayed PSC - No Build) $10M
Change in delays due to incident (Delayed PSC - No Build) $1,360M
Change in non-fuel costs (Delayed PSC - No Build) $111M
Change in fuel costs (Delayed PSC - No Build) ($109M)
Change in accident costs (Delayed PSC - No Build) $292M
Change in emissions cost (Delayed PSC - No Build) ($127M)
Change in highway benefits (Delayed PSC - No Build) $3,318M
Change in transit benefits (Delayed PSC - No Build) $22M
Change in carpooling benefits (Delayed PSC - No Build) $41M
Change in transit & carpool benefits (Delayed PSC - No Build) $64M
Change in total benefits (Delayed PSC - No Build) $3,381M
No Build O&M cost savings (Delayed PSC - No Build) $205M
Real costs (Delayed PSC - No Build) ($707M)
Change in total cost (Delayed PSC - No Build) ($502M)
Step 1 - Total net benefits / (costs) $2,879M
Delayed Conventional Delivery total net benefits / (costs) (Step 1) $2,879M

Table 15: Compare Conventional Delivery to Delayed Conventional Delivery (Step 2)

Table 15: Compare Conventional Delivery to Delayed Conventional Delivery (Step 2)
View larger version of Table 15.

Text of Table 15.

Step 2: Compare Conventional Delivery to Delayed Conventional Delivery NPV @ 2.00%
Travel time savings (PSC - Delayed PSC) $231M
Change in delays due to construction (PSC - Delayed PSC) ($3M)
Change in delays due to O&M (PSC - Delayed PSC) $2M
Change in delays due to incidents (PSC - Delayed PSC) $213M
Change in non-fuel costs (PSC - Delayed PSC) $20M
Change in fuel costs (PSC - Delayed PSC) ($32M)
Change in accident costs (PSC - Delayed PSC) $53M
Change in emissions cost (PSC - Delayed PSC) ($20M)
Change in highway benefits (PSC - Delayed PSC) $463M
Change in transit benefits (PSC - Delayed PSC) $3M
Change in carpooling benefits (PSC - Delayed PSC) $5M
Change in transit & carpool benefits (PSC - Delayed PSC) $7M
Change in total benefits (PSC - Delayed PSC) $470M
No Build O&M cost savings (PSC - Delayed PSC) $43M
Real costs (PSC - Delayed PSC) ($101M)
Change in total cost (PSC - Delayed PSC) ($59M)
Step 2 - Total additional net benefits / (costs) $412M
Conventional delivery total net benefits / (costs) (Step 1 + 2) $3,291M

Table 16: Compare P3 to Conventional Delivery (Step 3)

Table 16: Compare P3 to Conventional Delivery (Step 3)
View larger version of Table 16.

Text of Table 16.

Step 3: Compare P3 to Conventional Delivery NPV @ 2.00%
Travel time savings (P3 - PSC) $45M
Change in delays due to construction (P3 - PSC) $15M
Change in delays due to O&M (P3 - PSC) $2M
Change in delays due to incidents (P3 - PSC) $100M
Change in non-fuel costs (P3 - PSC) $4M
Change in fuel costs (P3 - PSC) ($7M)
Change in accident costs (P3 - PSC) $11M
Change in emissions cost (P3 - PSC) ($4M)
Change in highway benefits (P3 - PSC) $165M
Change in transit benefits (P3 - PSC) $1M
Change in carpooling benefits (P3 - PSC) $1M
Change in transit & carpool benefits (P3 - PSC) $1M
Change in total benefits (P3 - PSC) $167M
No Build O&M cost savings (P3 - PSC) $9M
Real costs (P3 - PSC) $55M
Change in total cost (P3 - PSC) $64M
Step 3 - Total additional benefits / (costs) $231M
P3 total net benefits / (costs) (Step 1 + 2 + 3) $3,522M

The above tables are then summarized and visually presented in Figure 24 below.

Figure 24: Sample Incremental PDBCA Comparison

Figure 24: Sample Incremental PDBCA Comparison
View larger version of Figure 24.

Text description of Figure 24.

Sample Incremental PDBCA Comparison

This bar chart visually represents the data found in the tables above. Delayed Conventional Delivery has a net benefit to society of $2,879M. Conventional Delivery has a net benefit to society of $412M, and P3 delivery has a net benefit to society of $23.1M.

For the hypothetical project depicted in the figures above, the P3 has the highest net benefit to society.

6.4.3 Detailed Benefit & Cost Graphs

Lastly, the model provides three detailed benefit and cost graphs:

  • Benefits and costs under Delayed Conventional Delivery
  • Benefits and costs under Conventional Delivery
  • Benefits and costs under P3

These are the same graphs as those included on the PDBCA Output Summary sheet, but they are larger to enable users to better identify the timing and size of various cost and benefit items.

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